When the prize is abundant clean energy, national security and geopolitical dominance, any simple mistake could blow the lid off decades worth of instability. India, which is aiming for a very aggressive target of having half of its energy consumption come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, is perilously dependent on China for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and bismuth. Meanwhile, Pakistan with $8 trillion worth of unexploited mineral resources is also playing a dangerous game of trying to get rich on its mineral wealth that wants to go home to its mother, the United States. Bullying both countries from above is the United States, eager to strengthen its strategic position vis-à-vis China by playing upon these rivalries.
“But the issue is alive and well.” Can the leverages South Asia rise above becoming a pawn in great power politics and carve out its own self-interest in the critical minerals challenge, or will this struggle for minerals also end up being a pyrrhic victory for the entire region?
This blog will critically analyse the interplay of the Indian quest for critical ones and the Pakistani mineral pivot and focus how great powers exploit these to secure their interests in an adversarial geo-political landscape. It is not simply a cautionary tale, but also an alternative vision of a way forward that is more cooperative, equitable, and sustainable for the citizens of South Asia.
Is India’s Critical-Minerals Push An Imperative Or A Geo-Political Trap?
India’s existential need for a safe stockpile of critical minerals is nothing to sneeze about. Lithium, cobalt and bismuth are crucial ingredients for clean energy technology, whether they are being used for electric cars or wind turbines. But India is in a bind, importing 100% of its lithium and cobalt and 85.6% of its bismuth, all from China.
Consider, for example, China’s 2023 gallium export controls, a product that shook global markets. India’s dependence on China for vital inputs makes such supply shocks virtually inevitable. Realising its own fragility, India has begun to diversify them by reaching out to Australia and US under the Quad alliance. The Mines Act, 2023 sought to usher domestic reforms that allowed for complete utilisation of local reserves, including that of J & K.
But herein lies the rub. By overrelying on the United States for diversification, India risks falling into another dependence trap. Through its critical minerals agenda, the US is putting its competition with China ahead of the actual interests of its allies, such as India. Tariffs of as much as 60% introduced as part of the U.S.-China trade war, for instance, have left global supply chains in disarray, and American policies from stockpiling at home rather than sharing equitably with partners.
India, for its part, cannot bank exclusively on diversifying its reliance from China to America to drive the strategy of critical minerals security. A more integrated and self-directed approach is needed, taking into account the environmental and socio-political implications of domestically produced minerals too.
Pakistan’s Mineral Gamble:A US Pivot In The Midst Of Regional Turmoil
India struggles to deal with current dependencies, Pakistan stands at the very beginning of capitalization on its vast mineral resources. In the end, with $8 trillion of reserves, much of it found in its insurgency-ridden province of Balochistan, Pakistan’s strategic minerals just might reformation is South Asia beyond recognition.
The United States is starting to pay attention. Billions of promises make their way to Pakistan rack and ruin, such as that from Washington or the likes of stakeholders like Gentry Beach are trying to capitalize Pakistan’s mineral treasury. This is part of the U.S. agenda to hedge against Chinese control over key minerals with the U.S. becoming less reliant on China in certain critical minerals, like lithium.
But Pakistan’s mineral pivot has its downsides too. Terrorist violence in Balochistan has reached highest levels as attacks by Balochistan Liberation Army have increased by 119% from 2023 to 2024. If this exploitation occurs in the absence of addressing these local grievances it may only serve to entrench cycles of violence and underdevelopment in the region.
Then there is also the matter of dependence on the outside. Resentment is simmering in Pakistan over what many here view as a one-sided relationship despite an estimated $67.2 billion investment by China in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. By turning to U.S. for future encouragment, Pakistan may soon replace one dependency with another, bypassing local empowerment and calling into question notions of sustainable development.
If the sources of regional instability are not tackled, it’s easy to see Pakistan’s vast mineral wealth turning not into the foot note in the march towards economic progress, but a tragic by-line in the canon of exploitation and disastrous governance.
The USA’s Chessboard Minerals and a ‘Pacified’ Afghanistan playing it’s Opponents (Sections 41 to 57) || Filed under: Afghanistan,Articles,China,Eurasia,History: On this day,Iran,NATO,New World Order,Pakistan,Past & Present,Russia,Saddam,UK,USA | The USA’s And The UK’s Omnipresence The USA and The UK are everywhere to be found on the chessboard.
It is the U.S., with its strategic competition with China, which is playing a double game in South Asia. On the one side is a U.S. that sees India as a central Indo-Pacific ally and, through partnerships like the iCET MoU, seeks to gain access to strategically important minerals and buttress defense ties. And yet it is surreptitiously courting Pakistan to diversify its sources of critical minerals amid burgeoning anti-China sentiment in Washington.
There is no mistaking U.S. objectives to challenge China’s 60% hold on lithium refining. But to achieve that, America has little interest in the long-term stability of its “partners.” Rather, American policies frequently aggravate India-Pakistan relations. Now consider the current context, in which South Asia has close to 335 nuclear warheads, divided roughly equally between the two countries. Playing both sides to advance its own mineral strategy, the US risks heightening this already precarious security situation.
From Trump-era tariffs to Rubio-Dar talks, America’s mineral chessboard is no less about locked-in leverage as it is shaking potential rivals loose. For South Asia, this opportunism will have come at the high price of lasting peace.
What a Fair Mineral Future Could Look Like
If there is a bright side to this quagmire, it’s that the minerals rush in South Asia could also drive never-before-seen regional cooperation. India and Pakistan could instead collaborate, using the best of what they have to create a South Asian clean energy corridor. Imagine if critical mineral strategies emphasized common interests over its military show of force?
India could further diversify away from the U.S. while strengthening linkages with Africa and Latin America, and its sustainable mining practices could be imposed on J&K. And Pakistan, in return, defuse security risks in Balochistan by dealing with socio-economic grievances as well as reforming its exploitative relationship with foreign powers (including, but not limited to, China and America).
Regional cooperation might also be the antidote to U.S.-China economic warfare. If India and Pakistan attend to the interests of South Asia first, they can ward off manipulation by outside players.
But such a stance requires more than economic policies; it requires a moral reckoning. The use of critical minerals should not be developed at the expense of marginalized communities or by destroying the environment. The vanguard of such a future isn’t in New England or Belgium but in South Asia; achieving this demands their agency be central to what is coming to be known as a future in which clean energy powers more than progress but also justice.
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The battle for critical minerals is not simply a geopolitical chessboard; it’s a contract with humanity. Clean power, economic justice and regional peace are at stake.
India, Pakistan and even global superpowers like the U.S. must determine how this race will conclude. Will we allow South Asia to be a pawn in superpower games or will the region decide its own fate? Nuclear could be the source of South Asia’s rise, or also of its doom. The decision, as ever must be ours.